Marriage can defuse Britain’s demographic time bomb
Britain is heading for a demographic line-crossing. The Resolution Foundation says 2026 may be the first year when deaths outnumber births, meaning any population growth would increasingly depend on net migration.
The report is explicit about what is changing: “2026 may be the first year in a new era when deaths exceed births by an ever-widening margin, forever closing a chapter in the demographics of this country that opened over a century ago”.
This is not a statistical curiosity. The Office for National Statistics reports that the total fertility rate in England and Wales fell to 1.41 children per woman in 2024, “the lowest value on record for the 3rd year in a row”. The Resolution Foundation adds that many countries are now “all well below the 2.1 replacement rate”.
The wider consequences are not only fiscal. The ONS reports a clear wellbeing gradient by relationship stability. In the year ending March 2023, “over 1 in 10 (12.0%)” of adults who were separated reported low life satisfaction, compared with “married (3.3%)”. Parents living with a dependent child were also less likely to report low life satisfaction (4.4%) than those without dependent children (6.2%).
That takes the debate to the real question. If Britain wants more births, the quickest cultural lever is earlier and more stable, child-oriented marriage. Evidence points in this direction. An Oxford analysis of British partnership history notes that “married women have their first birth sooner than cohabiting women”.
That pattern is not a British quirk. A major 15-country study found that “women who continue to cohabit after birth have significantly lower” birth rates than married women, even after controlling for factors such as age and education.
In plain English, marriage is the most reliable setting for building a larger family.
The current direction of travel is obvious. Fewer marriages, fewer children, and then a permanent argument over importing future generations. That is not a plan. It is drift.
The positive alternative is achievable. Coalition for Marriage exists to champion the gold standard of one man, one woman marriage, calmly and publicly, and to rebuild confidence that forming a family is normal, good, and possible.
Practical help matters. Supporters can invite Coalition for Marriage to churches and community organisations to run free pre-marriage and marriage refresher sessions that strengthen existing marriages and give younger couples the confidence to commit. Reply to find out more.